Scraps Stuffs - Random musings from apun ka desh

One of the most important points in the joint statement of July 18, 2005 which was signed by Dr. Manmohan Singh in his capacity as prime minister of India and George Bush Jr. in his capacity as the president of the US was Indo-US co-operation in the field of civilian nuclear energy. The relevant parts of the statement follows at the end of this blog article.

The Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968 created a permanent class of nuclear haves and have nots. Only the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the US, Soviet Union (now defunct and hence Russia in its place), UK, France and China had the privilege of possessing nuclear weapons. The rest of the world did not have this right, even for self-defence. Most of the nations except India, Pakistan and Israel signed onto this treaty, some because they agreed that nuclear apartheid was acceptable and many because of coercion used by the permanent five. The holdouts didn't sign on because of their own reasons. India, rightly, felt that the treaty was discriminatory and legitimized nuclear weapons in the hands of a few while outlawing them for everyone else. Pakistan, wrongly, because they just had to copy whatever India did. Israel, rightly, because their country and people faced an existential crisis because the Arabs had ganged up against them once and threatened to drive them to the sea (euphemism for genocide which was obviously unacceptable to them given their history of the holocaust).

Since India did not agree with the treaty, we didn't believe in stopping nuclear research both for peaceful purposes and for military uses. In 1974, India exploded a nuclear device in Pokharan, using plutonium from the Cirus reactor. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) was created in 1974, only to target India and prevent the flow of any nuclear material and technology to India. This is a crucial point ignored by most people - a set of countries, a few of them having advanced technology, ganged up against India and didn't allow us to buy nuclear material and technology that we needed. However, this did not deter us from creating a full fledged nuclear fuel cycle, right from prospecting for nuclear fuel, mining it, fabricating fuel bundles, designing and building reactors which would use the fuel to generate electricity, managing and recycling nuclear waste from the spent fuel. We have successfully mastered the plutonium fuel cycle and are well on the way to complete nuclear energy self-sufficiency using the three stages envisaged by Homi Bhabha way back in the 1950s. The US tried, unsuccessfully, to stop all this by various means - sanctions, arm twisting, outright coercion, blackmail, etc. but failed miserably.

After the 1998 nuclear tests, the US applied even more sanctions on us and went as far as to apply sanctions on companies only marginally associated with the nuclear domain. Companies helping our space program were also targetted, as were other non-nuclear military projects like the LCA. After initially promising us help with the LCA program, the US illegally kept the fly-by-wire related hardware and software that Indian engineers were using to test the LCA control laws on a modified F-16 in the US. This belonged to us and the US still decided not to return this! Clearly the US tried any and all means to hobble our nuclear, space and military programs, although they were not overt about this thus escaping Indian public attention.

After 9/11, the US realized that it needed India to help fight their war on terror. Their war because they simply ignored Pakistan's role in terrorism against India because the Pakistanis promised to target India and leave the west alone. India supplied a lot of intelligence about the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, which the US used in its war.

In the guise of helping India "attain big power status" the US is now trying to cap the Indian nuclear deterrent. The July 18 agreement only addressed the civilian side of Indian nuclear technology and wasn't applicable to the military side. However, the US, as is its wont, simply changed the goalposts when it suited them. They want to cap the Indian nuclear deterrent first, then roll it back and finally eliminate it. This has been their goal all along and if they cannot get it by threats and pressure, they will try to get it subterfuge. Knowing that Indians are hankering after respect as a major power, the US snake oil salesmen tried to sell the nuclear deal as the best thing since sliced bread. But there is still skepticism from the Indian side hence the following strategy is being used to pressurise India on this:

1. Use their legion of "sympathisers" in the Indian media to push their case. K Subrahmanyam is a recent convert to this list of "sympathisers". C. Raja Mohan always sang the US tune although being an Indian he should be looking after Indian interests first. Shekhar Gupta of the Indian Express is another one who seems to hold US interests way above Indian interests. There are other people too, who through their many articles in the Indian media seek to create the impression that the Indian DAE is putting objections to the deal simply because they are afraid that they will lose their monopoly on all things nuclear. Insinuating the DAE is corrupt and has less than stellar motives in opposing the deal is par for the course in these articles. Creating fear that if India does not agree to the deal it loses face (a more stupid argument could not have been articulated), creating uncertainity about the DAE's motives, creating doubt about our energy needs in the future is all being used to push for the deal. One hopes that these worthies are not doing it for US money or favours.
2. Creating pressure by stating that this deal must be approved before George Bush Jr. arrives in India in March, thereby giving us less time to think through on the implications of the deal.
3. Changing the goalposts to ask for more nuclear reactors to be put in the civilian list thereby depriving the military side of much needed nuclear material for use in nuclear warheads.
4. Putting extraneous conditions on Indian actions to support US goals and later stating that said actions were not linked to the nuclear deal at all.
   

According to the deal, India will commit to separating its civilian and military nuclear program so that foreign fuel and technology can be obtained for the civilian program. So far so good. But the US insists that the separation plan be credible to them whereas initially India had full freedom to choose what to put in the civilian domain and what will remain military. Now this freedom is being denied to us in the guise that the US Congress will not approve this deal if most, if not all, Indian facilities are not declared civilian. The DAE is dead against this and wants its plan of separation to be accepted in toto. And I support this fully because only the DAE knows what the effects the separation plan will have on their military capabilities. Sundry officials in the PMO, IDSA and other places not connected to the DAE don't know what they are talking about.

Current and former DAE officials, including Dr. Anil Kakodkar, Homi Sethna, P. K. Iyengar and A. K. Prasad have opposed US pressure to declare more facilities civilian and have emphatically expressed their view that the Indian FBR program be kept out of the civilian list. This seems to have angered Dr. Manmohan Singh, who probably wants to accept all the US demands whether or not they affect Indian security. Being an economist, his first priority seems to be all things financial. In the 1990s he was responsible for depriving the DAE of money to build more nuclear power plants and responsible for depriving the IN of money to buy and build more ships to replace the ones retiring (the IN still refers the 1990s to be a lost decade). Now he seems intent on neutering the Indian nuclear deterrent which has been zealously guarded right from the times of Jawaharlal Nehru. This is disastrous. The PM has promised a statement on the deal in the next session of parliament which is good because all the secrecy regarding the exact nature of the deal is giving rise to all kinds of speculations about a sellof of Indian interests.

India must listen to its DAE officials and accept their separation plan as final. If the US cannot accept this, then India must walk away from the deal. Not doing so will adversely affect the Indian nuclear posture and this should be avoided at all costs.

Relevant extracts from the joint statement

Recognizing the significance of civilian nuclear energy for meeting growing global energy demands in a cleaner and more efficient manner, the two leaders discussed India’s plans to develop its civilian nuclear energy program.

President Bush conveyed his appreciation to the Prime Minister over India’s strong commitment to preventing WMD proliferation and stated that as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology, India should acquire the same benefits and advantages as other such states. The President told the Prime Minister that he will work to achieve full civil nuclear energy cooperation with India as it realizes its goals of promoting nuclear power and achieving energy security. The President would also seek agreement from Congress to adjust U.S. laws and policies, and the United States will work with friends and allies to adjust international regimes to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India, including but not limited to expeditious consideration of fuel supplies for safeguarded nuclear reactors at Tarapur. In the meantime, the United States will encourage its partners to also consider this request expeditiously. India has expressed its interest in ITER and a willingness to contribute. The United States will consult with its partners considering India’s participation. The United States will consult with the other participants in the Generation IV International Forum with a view toward India’s inclusion.

The Prime Minister conveyed that for his part, India would reciprocally agree that it would be ready to assume the same responsibilities and practices and acquire the same benefits and advantages as other leading countries with advanced nuclear technology, such as the United States. These responsibilities and practices consist of identifying and separating civilian and military nuclear facilities and programs in a phased manner and filing a declaration regarding its civilians facilities with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); taking a decision to place voluntarily its civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards; signing and adhering to an Additional Protocol with respect to civilian nuclear facilities; continuing India’s unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing; working with the United States for the conclusion of a multilateral Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty; refraining from transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that do not have them and supporting international efforts to limit their spread; and ensuring that the necessary steps have been taken to secure nuclear materials and technology through comprehensive export control legislation and through harmonization and adherence to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines.

The President welcomed the Prime Minister’s assurance. The two leaders agreed to establish a working group to undertake on a phased basis in the months ahead the necessary actions mentioned above to fulfill these commitments. The President and Prime Minister also agreed that they would review this progress when the President visits India in 2006.

The two leaders also reiterated their commitment that their countries would play a leading role in international efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological weapons.